{"id":6370,"date":"2023-09-26T21:09:37","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T21:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cryptoadria.com\/portal\/?p=6370"},"modified":"2023-09-27T09:13:50","modified_gmt":"2023-09-27T09:13:50","slug":"da-li-smanjenje-nagrada-za-bitkoin-pokrece-rast-cijene-btc-ili-je-to-americki-trezorski-zapis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cryptoadria.com\/portal\/2023\/09\/26\/da-li-smanjenje-nagrada-za-bitkoin-pokrece-rast-cijene-btc-ili-je-to-americki-trezorski-zapis\/","title":{"rendered":"Da li smanjenje nagrada za Bitkoin pokre\u0107e rast cijene BTC, ili je to ameri\u010dki trezorski zapis?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Intrigantan grafikon pokazuje blisku vezu izme\u0111u ameri\u010dkih 10-godi\u0161njih trezora i prepolovljenja cijena bitkoina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Odnos izme\u0111u cijene Bitcoina i prinosa ameri\u010dkog trezora dugo se smatra jakim indikatorom zbog historijskih podataka i temeljnog obrazlo\u017eenja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prepolovljenje bitkoina u odnosu na prinose 10-godi\u0161njeg trezora<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

U su\u0161tini, kada se investitori okre\u0107u dr\u017eavnim obveznicama radi sigurnosti, imovine poput Bitcoina, koji se smatraju rizi\u010dnim, obi\u010dno imaju lo\u0161 u\u010dinak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zanimljiv grafikon koji TXMC dijeli na X (ranije poznat kao Twitter) navodi argument da se prepolovljenje<\/a> bitkoina poklopilo sa \u201crelativnim lokalnim niskim vrijednostima\u201d u 10-godi\u0161njem prinosu trezora. Uprkos upitnoj upotrebi termina \u201erelativan\u201c, koji se ne poklapa precizno sa najni\u017eim tromese\u010dnim nivoom, ipak je vredno ispitati makroekonomske trendove koji okru\u017euju pro\u0161la prepolovljenja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Prije svega, va\u017eno je naglasiti da autor tvrdi da korelaciju ne treba shvatiti kao \u201cdirektnu uzro\u010dnu vezu izme\u0111u prinosa i cijene BTC-a\u201d. Nadalje, TMXC tvrdi da je vi\u0161e od 92% zaliha Bitcoina ve\u0107 izdato, sugeriraju\u0107i da je malo vjerovatno da \u0107e svakodnevno izdavanje biti faktor koji \u201epodi\u017ee cijenu imovine\u201c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mo\u017ee li 10-godi\u0161nji grafikon prinosa biti koristan u odnosu na Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Prvo, bitno je prepoznati da je ljudska percepcija prirodno sklona uo\u010davanju korelacija i trendova, bilo stvarnih ili imaginarnih.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na primjer, tokom prvog prepolovljenja Bitcoina, desetogodi\u0161nji prinos je stalno rastao<\/a> \u010detiri mjeseca, \u0161to je \u010dinilo izazovom ozna\u010diti taj datum kao klju\u010dni trenutak za metriku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Neko bi mogao donekle doneti korist od sumnje jer, u stvari, do 28. novembra 2012, prinosi su pali ispod 1,60%, \u0161to je nivo koji nije vi\u0111en u prethodna tri meseca. U su\u0161tini, nakon prvog prepolovljenja bitkoina, investitori sa fiksnim prihodom odlu\u010dili su da preokrenu trend prodajom trezora, \u010dime su pove\u0107ali prinose.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Me\u0111utim, najintrigantniji aspekt se pojavljuje oko tre\u0107eg prepolovljenja Bitcoina u maju 2020. godine, u smislu \u201erelativnog\u201c dna prinosa. Prinosi su pali ispod 0,8% otprilike 45 dana prije doga\u0111aja i ostali na tom nivou vi\u0161e od \u010detiri mjeseca.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Izazovno je tvrditi da je 10-godi\u0161nji prinos dostigao najni\u017eu ta\u010dku blizu tre\u0107eg prepolovljenja, posebno kada je cijena bitkoina porasla samo 20% u naredna \u010detiri mjeseca. Pore\u0111enja radi, drugo prepolovljenje u julu 2016. pra\u0107eno je pove\u0107anjem od samo 10% tokom \u010detiri mjeseca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shodno tome, poku\u0161aju pripisivanja bikovskog trkanja Bitcoina odre\u0111enom doga\u0111aju s nedefiniranim datumom zavr\u0161etka nedostaje statisti\u010dka vrijednost.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stoga, \u010dak i ako se prizna ideja o \u201crelativnim\u201d lokalnim niskim vrijednostima na 10-godi\u0161njem grafikonu prinosa, nema uvjerljivih dokaza da je datum prepolovljenja Bitcoina direktno uticao na njegovu cijenu, barem u naredna \u010detiri mjeseca.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iako se ovi nalazi ne poklapaju sa hipotezom TMXC-a, oni postavljaju zanimljivo pitanje o makroekonomskim faktorima koji su u igri tokom stvarnih poskupljenja bitkoina.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nijedan rast Bitcoina nije isti, bez obzira na prepolovljenje<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Izme\u0111u 5. oktobra 2020. i 5. januara 2021. Bitcoin je zabilje\u017eio zna\u010dajan porast vrijednosti od 247%. Ovaj skup se dogodio pet mjeseci nakon prepolovljenja, \u0161to nas je navelo da se zapitamo koji su zna\u010dajni doga\u0111aji okru\u017eivali taj period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na primjer, tokom tog vremena, Russell 2000 Small-Capitalization indeks je nadma\u0161io S&P 500 kompanije sa zna\u010dajnom razlikom, sa razlikom od 14,5% u u\u010dinku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Ovi podaci sugeriraju da su investitori tra\u017eili profile ve\u0107eg rizika, s obzirom na to da je srednja tr\u017ei\u0161na kapitalizacija Russell 2000 kompanija iznosila 1,25 milijardi dolara, \u0161to je znatno ni\u017ee od 77,2 milijarde dolara S&P 500.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shodno tome, \u0161ta god da je pokretalo ovo kretanje, \u010dini se da je povezano sa zamahom ka rizi\u010dnijoj imovini, a ne sa bilo kakvim trendovima u prinosima trezora \u010detiri meseca ranije.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U zaklju\u010dku, grafikoni mogu biti pogre\u0161ni kada se analiziraju du\u017ei vremenski periodi. Povezivanju bitkoinovog skupa sa pojedina\u010dnim doga\u0111ajem nedostaje statisti\u010dka strogost kada uzlet obi\u010dno po\u010dinje tri ili \u010detiri meseca nakon pomenutog doga\u0111aja.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ovo nagla\u0161ava potrebu za nijansiranijim razumijevanjem tr\u017ei\u0161ta kriptovaluta, koje priznaje vi\u0161estruke faktore koji utje\u010du na dinamiku cijena Bitcoina, umjesto da se oslanjaju samo na pojednostavljene korelacije ili izolirane podatke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Izvor: Cointelegraph<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Intrigantan grafikon pokazuje blisku vezu izme\u0111u ameri\u010dkih 10-godi\u0161njih trezora i prepolovljenja cijena bitkoina. Odnos izme\u0111u cijene Bitcoina i prinosa ameri\u010dkog trezora dugo se smatra jakim indikatorom zbog historijskih podataka i temeljnog obrazlo\u017eenja. Prepolovljenje bitkoina u odnosu na prinose 10-godi\u0161njeg trezora U su\u0161tini, kada se investitori okre\u0107u dr\u017eavnim obveznicama radi sigurnosti, imovine poput Bitcoina, koji se […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6378,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[48],"tags":[50,67,54,49,51,65,66],"class_list":["post-6370","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-novosti","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitkoin","tag-btc","tag-crypto","tag-crypto-currency","tag-kripto","tag-kriptovaluta"],"yoast_head":"\nDa li smanjenje nagrada za Bitkoin pokre\u0107e rast cijene BTC, ili je to ameri\u010dki trezorski zapis? - CryptoAdria Portal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cryptoadria.com\/portal\/2023\/09\/26\/da-li-smanjenje-nagrada-za-bitkoin-pokrece-rast-cijene-btc-ili-je-to-americki-trezorski-zapis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Da li smanjenje nagrada za Bitkoin pokre\u0107e rast cijene BTC, ili je to ameri\u010dki trezorski zapis? - CryptoAdria Portal\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Intrigantan grafikon pokazuje blisku vezu izme\u0111u ameri\u010dkih 10-godi\u0161njih trezora i prepolovljenja cijena bitkoina. 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